MARKET REGIME

US Equity · NASDAQ Sectors · Updated 2026-07-15
→ Prediction
⚖ Mixed
Growth vs Defensive spread
Growth
+8.0%
Defensive
+7.6%
Spread +0.3pp  ·  threshold −5 to +10pp  ·  XLP↔XLK -0.353 Defensives decoupling
⚡ Risk-ON ⚖ Mixed 🛡 Risk-OFF
SECTOR ROTATION — YTD 2026
💻 XLK Technology
+27.6%
XLE Energy
+26.5%
🏭 XLI Industrials
+14.8%
🏢 XLRE Real Estate
+11.9%
⚗️ XLB Materials
+10.7%
🛒 XLP Cons. Staples
+8.7%
💡 XLU Utilities
+7.2%
🏦 XLF Financials
+3.2%
🏥 XLV Healthcare
+2.7%
🛍 XLY Cons. Discretionary
-1.7%
📡 XLC Comm. Services
-4.1%
GROWTH: XLK XLI XLY XLC XLF DEFENSIVE: XLP XLU XLV XLRE
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
10Y Yield 4.62%
2Y Yield 4.26%
2Y–10Y Spread -0.36%
Fed Funds Rate 3.63%
Fear Signal XLP↔XLK -0.353 Defensives hiding
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Generating regime analysis…
SECTOR CORRELATION MATRIX — YTD 2026
XLRE XLY XLI XLB XLE XLV XLC XLF XLK XLU XLP
XLRE 1.00 0.33 0.41 0.44 -0.04 0.51 0.38 0.39 -0.07 0.63 0.50
XLY 0.33 1.00 0.59 0.51 -0.39 0.29 0.66 0.51 0.57 0.09 0.11
XLI 0.41 0.59 1.00 0.72 -0.25 0.33 0.35 0.45 0.53 0.30 0.13
XLB 0.44 0.51 0.72 1.00 -0.07 0.34 0.29 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.28
XLE -0.04 -0.39 -0.25 -0.07 1.00 -0.08 -0.22 -0.16 -0.28 0.05 0.15
XLV 0.51 0.29 0.33 0.34 -0.08 1.00 0.33 0.34 -0.08 0.31 0.45
XLC 0.38 0.66 0.35 0.29 -0.22 0.33 1.00 0.52 0.27 0.03 0.14
XLF 0.39 0.51 0.45 0.35 -0.16 0.34 0.52 1.00 0.21 0.01 0.02
XLK -0.07 0.57 0.53 0.36 -0.28 -0.08 0.27 0.21 1.00 -0.14 -0.35
XLU 0.63 0.09 0.30 0.36 0.05 0.31 0.03 0.01 -0.14 1.00 0.46
XLP 0.50 0.11 0.13 0.28 0.15 0.45 0.14 0.02 -0.35 0.46 1.00
Best diversifier: XLE (avg corr 0.169) Tightest pair: XLB (0.716)