MARKET REGIME

US Equity Β· NASDAQ Sectors Β· Updated 2026-11-13
β†’ Prediction
πŸ›‘ Risk-OFF
Growth vs Defensive spread
Growth
+6.3%
Defensive
+14.5%
Spread -8.2pp  Β·  threshold <βˆ’5pp  Β·  XLP↔XLK -0.380 Defensives decoupling
⚑ Risk-ON βš– Mixed πŸ›‘ Risk-OFF
SECTOR ROTATION β€” YTD 2026
⚑ XLE Energy
+43.7%
πŸ₯ XLV Healthcare
+22.3%
πŸ’» XLK Technology
+20.9%
πŸ›’ XLP Cons. Staples
+19.5%
βš—οΈ XLB Materials
+14.9%
🏒 XLRE Real Estate
+12.5%
🏭 XLI Industrials
+8.1%
🏦 XLF Financials
+7.3%
πŸ’‘ XLU Utilities
+3.6%
πŸ› XLY Cons. Discretionary
+2.4%
πŸ“‘ XLC Comm. Services
-7.2%
GROWTH: XLK XLI XLY XLC XLF DEFENSIVE: XLP XLU XLV XLRE
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
10Y Yield 5.10%
2Y Yield 4.86%
2Y–10Y Spread -0.24%
Fed Funds Rate 3.88%
Fear Signal XLP↔XLK -0.380 Defensives hiding
AI REGIME READ β—Ž loading…
Generating regime analysis…
SECTOR CORRELATION MATRIX β€” YTD 2026
XLE XLK XLI XLRE XLB XLP XLU XLF XLC XLV XLY
XLE 1.00 -0.17 -0.17 -0.10 -0.10 0.03 0.03 -0.18 -0.26 -0.12 -0.36
XLK -0.17 1.00 0.56 -0.04 0.28 -0.38 -0.08 0.19 0.18 -0.10 0.45
XLI -0.17 0.56 1.00 0.37 0.62 0.07 0.31 0.46 0.24 0.24 0.51
XLRE -0.10 -0.04 0.37 1.00 0.47 0.53 0.58 0.48 0.35 0.51 0.39
XLB -0.10 0.28 0.62 0.47 1.00 0.38 0.34 0.44 0.27 0.39 0.52
XLP 0.03 -0.38 0.07 0.53 0.38 1.00 0.40 0.23 0.22 0.52 0.24
XLU 0.03 -0.08 0.31 0.58 0.34 0.40 1.00 0.11 -0.01 0.24 0.10
XLF -0.18 0.19 0.46 0.48 0.44 0.23 0.11 1.00 0.48 0.41 0.56
XLC -0.26 0.18 0.24 0.35 0.27 0.22 -0.01 0.48 1.00 0.28 0.63
XLV -0.12 -0.10 0.24 0.51 0.39 0.52 0.24 0.41 0.28 1.00 0.33
XLY -0.36 0.45 0.51 0.39 0.52 0.24 0.10 0.56 0.63 0.33 1.00
Best diversifier: XLE (avg corr 0.152) Tightest pair: XLY (0.626)